Brokers dismantle “conspiracy theory”
Is the market closed on February 3rd the only way for A shares?
Brokers dismantle “conspiracy theory”
When panic spreads, when does the specific medicine appear?
Investing without looking at policies is like blindfolding. Come to Sina Finance University, listen to Miss Dong read the news, and understand the market.
The latest epidemic interpretation is free for a limited time before February 9!
Original title: Is the market closed on February 3rd the only way for A shares?
The brokerage dismantled the “conspiracy theory”. The client of Xinjing Jingwei, February 2nd (Wu Yihan) On February 3rd (next Monday), the stock market will officially open.
However, since the outbreak, whether A shares should remain closed has become a hot topic in the capital market.
On February 1, Yang Fan, a professor at China University of Political Science and Law, once again posted a Weibo, saying that if the stock market opens on February 3, there must be a limit of 1,000 shares.Chinese assets plummeted, and then came back for acquisitions.
On January 31 and January 27, Yang Fan twice posted Weibo to suggest that the Chinese stock market be extended.
What will happen to A shares after the market opens?
Is the market closed properly?
What are the implications if the market is extended?
This reporter from Sino-Singapore Jingwei interviewed the opinions of several professionals.
SFC’s data map, how will Zhongxin Jingwei photograph A shares open after the market opens?
Qian Dean, chief economist at Qianhai Open Source, told reporters at Sino-Singapore Jingwei that if the stock market opens next Monday, the stock market will indeed face relatively heavy selling pressure, and there may also be large-scale stock limit stops.
”But this week, Hong Kong stocks, U.S. stocks, and Singapore stocks all trended down and rebounded.
From the high point before the holiday, the Hang Seng Index has gradually dropped by less than 10%, which can provide a reference for everyone to judge the decline of the broader market after the opening of the A-share market after the holiday.
If the broad market falls by 10%, the differentiation of individual stocks will be relatively large. Like some heavy stocks, white horse stocks, the decline may be less than 10%, but some poor performance stocks and reverse stocks may have multiple limit stops, the decline is much greater than 10%.
“Yang Delong said.
China Development Bank’s chief investment adviser Li Shitong pointed out to the reporter from China Securities and Futures Corporation that from the current situation, the decline in the stock market after the opening of the market will be a high probability event, because the negative will always be digested.The company’s first quarter results may also appear to overlap.
”But investors don’t need to panic too much. The current A-share market is different from the stock market volatility in 2015 and during SARS in 2003.
Around 2015, the current A-share is estimated to be at a low level; according to 2003, the current market trend is not downward. Therefore, if the market transaction is liberalized, the stock market may bottom out after two or three consecutive days of decline.
Guo Yiming, director of investment advisory of Jufeng Investment Gu, told reporters from Sino-Singapore Jingwei that the probability of a short-term market decline is very high under the impact of unexpected events and expectations.
From a historical perspective, emergencies are often phased investment opportunities, especially mid-to-long-term opportunities in the market under current fundamental stability.
”Of course, the occurrence of the epidemic situation, and the expectation of short-term economic impact will directly lead to a possible downturn in the market, especially the consumption, tourism and other service industries directly affected by the epidemic situation.
For investors, it is necessary to make two preparations: first, to comprehensively review their own positions, not necessarily to go short in the short term, but to ensure the relative safety of the principal from the perspective of stop loss; second, from the future and history of investmentWith reference to the market, you can consider the medium and long-term low-sucking opportunities in the consumer category.
Guo Yiming said.
What are the implications of the extended break?
From the perspective of the highest people, if the A-shares continue to be closed, it will have a certain possible impact on economic 杭州桑拿网 development.
Li Shitong said that at present, the capital markets of developing countries have been closely linked to the international market. The long-term suspension of the stock market will affect the normal trading behavior of foreign funds. If this leads to MSCI and other indexes to adjust the weight of A shares, it will open the capital market to the outside world.Will also have an adverse effect.
Guo Yiming pointed out that one of the most important functions of the capital market is financing. Once the market is prolonged, the liquidity of the stock market will be affected, and the direct financing channels of enterprises will be blocked. While affecting the development of enterprises, it will also inhibit the development of the industry and the economy to a certain extent.
Yang Delong believes that the 杭州桑拿 control of the epidemic takes time, and if the stock market has not yet fully controlled the earnings during the extended market break, then even if the extension is opened, the dividend will still face a short-term selling pressure, and it is difficult to have a substantialimprove.
Should the market be extended?
In a Weibo on February 1st, Yang Fan said that the Shanghai Stock Exchange has issued a notice of going to work on the 3rd, but the companies in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen have been assigned to work on the 9th, and securities companies are also companies. If they do n’t work, how can they open the market?
In addition, the Chinese stock market follows the Singapore A50 stock index futures. I believe that international capital has done a good job, causing Chinese assets to plummet. The only way to buy it again is to close the market.
In this way, Li Shitong said that there are not so many conspiracies in the capital market. In fact, there are risks whether short or long.At present, it is a high probability event that A shares will decrease shortly after the market opens. For short sellers to make a profit, they need to continue to be bearish after the first round of decline, but at the current valuation of A sharesNext, it is not ruled out that many people are stepping on money to wait for the bottom, if the epidemic situation is significantly improved, it may form support for A shares and cause losses to short sellers.
”In fact, everyone is mainly worried that leverage tools such as futures budgets will help boost the stock market in the event of a panic in the stock market, and can be prevented by some reasonable measures to avoid limiting the number of short sales of stock index futures and increasing the margin.Ratio, etc.
In addition, the market has been scheduled to open on February 3. If the market opening is postponed again, this kind of policy change will be harmful to the capital market.
“Said Li Shitong.
Regarding the question of whether the business departments of securities dealers in different places can operate normally under the extended holidays, Guo Yiming believes that, theoretically, the market does not necessarily have to take a temporary break.
Especially with the development and popularization of the mobile Internet, the market can still operate as usual, even if the market is not closed.
(Zhongxin Jingwei APP)